The first day of summer arrived just last week, and with it, the summer weather is following close behind. According to National Weather Service Meteorologist Zach Hargrove, the month of July is shaping up to have typical summer weather with a little extra rain.
“Looking at temperatures, we are not seeing a strong signal either way,” said Hargrove. “Whether July is looking to be above or below normal, really it could go 50/50 either way. We don’t have a strong signal, so it’s probably about normal summer weather for what to expect for July.”
So what is “normal summer weather” for July? Hargrove explained during an average July, the southwest region experiences a rough average high of around 83 degrees and an average low of about 56 degrees.
Because the southwest region has been experiencing cooler than normal temperatures lately, the meteorologist said that the summer weather will probably seem warmer than average temperatures.
“Typically July is a little bit less wet than June, but on average warmer,” he said.
Although July is typically has less rainfall, Hargrove said to expect above average rains for the southwest region.
Normally the region experiences about 2.16 inches of rain in July, however this year, the National Weather Service is predicting a strong chance of above average rainfall.
“It looks like there is a signal to where we might see above average precipitation,” said Hargrove. “[Most] of North Dakota… is in the range for at least slightly above average precipitation, but as you get toward South Dakota, there is more confidence in above average rainfall for the month. Right there in Southwest North Dakota, you are straddling that line into a higher confidence that there will be above average precipitation.”
The one-month precipitation outlook map shows Southwest North Dakota right on the line for a roughly 40-50 percent chance of above average rainfall.
Although the National Weather Service can’t exactly predict how much rain is expected in July, they can say that it will likely be over the July average of 2.16 inches.
Hargrove explained that, when looking at the precipitation outlook map, the areas marked in a darker green do not necessarily mean that there will be more rain, but instead the map indicates the amount of confidence the National Weather Service has that there will be a higher average rainfall.
Be sure to keep a rain jacket and umbrella on hand, because the region will likely be expecting more precipitation.
Hargrove continued, “Confidence is pretty high that we are going to be turning more toward a more summer-like pattern with more scattered thunderstorms in the afternoons as we approach July.”